Future developments

 

The WILIAM model is in a very advanced stage of development which allows to obtain partial results of some dimensions, features and interlinks which are reliable and informative. However, there are still some critical features not fully developed or validated which prevent the user from using the whole model to explore long-term decarbonisation pathways within planetary boundaries since without them, implausible results are obtained.

Find below a list of the main envisaged future WILIAM developments in order to have a first validated version of the model:

Improve module interlinkages

Z

Bottom-up modelling of households’ energy consumption in buildings (energy-economy link)

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Complete the represented economic impacts of the energy transition (energy-economy link):

  • Endogenization of energy infrastructure investments in the economic investment submodule
  • Dynamic technical coefficients for Input-Output tables: Representation of the changes in the A matrix consistently with the variation in the sectoral final energy intensities and the energy transformation chain
Z

Model transport freight (energy-economy link)

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Model the hydrogen sector (energy-economy-materials link) 

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Representation of the implications of the increasing energy requirements when are grade/concentration of fossil fuels and minerals decrease on the final energy intensities. (energy-materials link)

Z

Model the material requirements and impact on EROI of electric grids (energy-materials link)

Z

Increase the represented policies about the land-energy-water nexus (land-energy-water link)

Improve the energy module

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Model vintaging of energy infrastructure

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Improvement of the modelling of the reaction to energy scarcity in the energy module (final energy intensities efficiencies and replacements as well as passenger transport)

Improve the demographic & social modules

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Partial endogenization of fertility in the demographic module

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Partial endogenization of mortality taking into account variables that influence health

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Improvements on social indicators

Improve the land use and water module

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Improve the representation of biophysical limits to the expansion of land-uses and crop yields

Z

The effect of oil and gas scarcity in agriculture management

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Shift to regenerative agriculture

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Improve water module

Improvements across alll modules

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Quantification of climate change impacts and adaptation endogenously across the model (notably in economy and environmental modules)

Z

Expand the modelling of potential behavioural changes in consumers

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Continuous improvement of the usability of the IAM

Scenario development

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Parametrization of some of the global scenarios defined in the project (Business-As-Usual-SSP2, Green Growth, Post Growth, Green Deal)

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